Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 came as a real shock to German elites and society alike. Although Russia has been behaving aggressively toward its neighbors since the invasion of Georgia in 2008 and the annexation of Crimea—part of Ukraine’s internationally recognized territory—in 2014, it was only with this most recent military attack that the German leadership came to understand Russia’s behavior as a threat to German and European security.

Change, instability, and transition will characterize the foreign policy environment over the coming months as politicians and citizens grapple with the reverberations of a double-whammy shaking the Western world: the United States, the globe’s premiere power, will once again be led by Donald J. Trump, the country’s chief disrupter, while Germany, Europe’s largest power, has to contend with a tumultuous collapse of its coalition government and an unclear path to new elections. Both events are bound to trigger consequences further afield.

On October 20, Moldovans will vote in both presidential elections and a constitutional referendum on EU integration. These elections are critical as they will set the stage for the 2025 parliamentary elections and indicate the level of support for President Maia Sandu and her liberal, pro-EU Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS). The outcome will also reflect public opinion on Moldova’s EU integration efforts, which have been central to Sandu's agenda. Despite achievements in governance, the PAS government faces criticism for falling short of building social cohesion and delivering all promised reforms. The EU can support Moldova by focusing on economic development and stability, job creation, enhancing administrative capacity, and supporting Moldova’s resilience against Russian hybrid threats.