This Chaillot Paper makes the case for a bold shift in the EU’s strategic posture. In the face of Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine – and its broader subversive tactics and malign influence operations – the EU must actively ‘unpower’ Russia by dismantling its capacity to undermine European interests.

We argue that Europe needs to chart a new course to navigate what is likely to be a drawn-out confrontation. To guide the EU’s policies, the paper offers a balanced assessment of Russia’s strengths but, crucially, also its vulnerabilities, which the EU can exploit to disable Russia’s efforts to inflict harm.

Focusing on five key regions – China, the Indo-Pacific, the Southern Mediterranean, the Western Balkans and Sub-Saharan Africa – the authors also examine critical domains such as Russia’s hybrid warfare tactics, the Kremlin’s red line playbook, and the notorious ‘shadow fleet’.

The conclusion is clear: Europe is not powerless, but it has not yet converted its multiple strengths into decisive action. To unpower Russia, the EU must think and act in terms of power – and have the courage to use it.

Read the full paper here.

The paper was published by the European Union Institute for Security Studies (Belgium & France)